Aurora Insights quoted by BBC Chinese

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Our Executive Director Ivy Kwek talked to BBC Chinese on the 2025 Shangri-la Dialogue (original English quotes included).

The full article can be read here.

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香格里拉對話後的疑問：中國「戰略缺席」還是被「缺席審判」？美國重建亞太領導地位？

“Questions after the Shangri-La Dialogue: Is China “strategically absent” or “tried in absentia”? Will the United States rebuild its leadership in the Asia-Pacific region?”

地緣政治風險評估公司 Aurora Insights 執行董事郭艾薇（Ivy Kwek）向BBC分析稱，北京將越南與馬來西亞塑造成「模範生」，以對比其眼中菲律賓的「不良行為」。她解釋，中國此舉是向東南亞的（南海）聲索國暗示，北京傾向獎勵合作與「睦鄰」態度，但同時懲罰挑釁的行為。郭艾薇說，換言之北京偏好與個別聲索國進行雙邊談判，此舉可能在東協國家間埋下分裂種子，削弱區域集團的團結。

China is showcasing Vietnam & Malaysia as “model students” to contrast what it considered as “bad behaviour” by the Philippines.

Implicitly it is also trying to hint at Southeast Asian claimant states that it rewards cooperative, “neighbourly” attitudes while punishes defiance. China prefers to deal bilaterally with individual claimant states, which might sow divisions within ASEAN states & undermine the regional bloc’s unity.

不過，研究東南亞多年的郭艾薇認為，東協國家仍致力於集體解決爭端，特別是持續推進《南海行為準則》（COC）談判，展現維護區域穩定的決心。她強調新加坡、馬來西亞與越南等國對美國和法國代表關於台灣及區域安全議題的評論保持沉默，原因在於東南亞國家其實深深的意識到台海問題的敏感性，及其對區域穩定與繁榮的潛在威脅。一旦台海爆發衝突，將帶來嚴重後果，因此大多數東南亞國家刻意在此議題上保持低調。

However, ASEAN is still committed to resolve the issue collectively, notably the ongoing negotiations on the Code of Conduct on South China Sea.

Southeast Asian countries are acutely aware of the fragile nature of the Taiwan issue & the severe risks it poses to regional stability and prosperity should conflict erupt over Taiwan Strait. This is why most countries in the region deliberately kept a low profile on the matter.

郭艾薇告訴BBC，赫格塞斯在演說中將中國描繪為威脅，加劇東南亞國家對台海問題被美國用作挑起與中國緊張關係藉口的擔憂。這種強硬立場使東南亞國家更為謹慎，避免捲入大國競爭的漩渦：「當前美國政府在烏克蘭等全球關鍵議題上的立場大幅轉變，以及其決策過程的不可預測性，未能為美國在印太地區的承諾提供一致性與連續性的保證。」她說。

Hegseth’ portrayal of China as a threat in his speech reinforced fears among Southeast Asian countries that Taiwan could be used as a pretext for Washington to escalate tensions with Beijing.

Southeast Asian countries are now more wary than ever of being entrapped in any pissing-contest between rival powers. The administration’s stark departure in its positions on key global issues like Ukraine, and unpredictable decision-making process does not instill confidence in the consistency & continuity of U.S.’s commitment in the Indo-Pacific.