Advisory Note: “ASEAN Dual Shock”

The “ASEAN dual-shock” advisory note highlights two independent shocks are now hitting every major ASEAN export economy simultaneously:

1) An acute energy crisis – the combined effect of the US-Israel war on Iran, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 90% of Asia’s Gulf oil transits, and the structural destruction of Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, which has removed 17% of global LNG export capacity for 3 to 5 years regardless of when the war ends.

2) An escalating US trade pressure campaign, anchored by new Section 301 investigations on forced labor and excess capacity, covering all seven major ASEAN economies. Together, they represent the most acute combination of supply-side and trade-side risk Southeast Asia has faced in a generation.

This note sets out the exposure, the timeline, and what it means for businesses operating across the region.

What’s in the Advisory Note:

1. An Strategic Assessment on the Energy Crisis
2. An Situational Analysis on the Section 301 investigations by US
3. Four scenarios to expect in the next 90 days
4. Breakdown by Sectors and what the dual crises means for you

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